Euro area consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rise to 3.1% in September
The European Central Bank's monthly consumer survey shows households also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment over the next year.
AI illustrationConsumers in the euro area expected inflation over the next 12 months to be 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August, according to the European Central Bank's monthly survey of consumer expectations published on 23 October.
The median rate of inflation that consumers perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and those for five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained higher than before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Respondents in the bottom income quintile again reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Respondents aged 18 to 34 continued to report lower figures than older age groups.
Households turned more pessimistic about the economy. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The unemployment rate expected in 12 months' time rose to 11.3% from 11.0%, against a perceived current rate of 10.6%. The ECB said this suggests a broadly stable labour market outlook. Households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate, 13.6%, and those in the top quintile the lowest, 9.7%.
Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months edged up to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the past 12 months rose to 5.3% from 5.2%.
Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time were unchanged at 4.9%. More households reported tighter access to credit over the past 12 months than in August, and more expected tighter credit conditions ahead.
The survey covers around 19,000 adult consumers in 11 euro area countries. Fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB said the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Results for October are scheduled for release on 27 November 2026.